Evidence-based analysis of the situation with tuberculosis in Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan

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Abstract

The target of this work is to implement an evidence-based approach in a comparative analyzing of the current tuberculosis situation in the Kyrgyz Republic and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Such analysis is of particular interest for assessing the so-called “country” contribution to the implementation of strategies to stop tuberculosis, proclaimed by the World Health Organization. Two-factor linear regression models are presented for both countries. Models take into account how state budget expenditures on health care and the level of poverty impact onto the tuberculosis incidence. The latter circumstance is due to the significant difference between the National Statistical Services in considered countries, as well as the lack of initial data and their heterogeneity. The estimated quality characteristics of the models show them to use in prediction values of the tuberculosis incidence until 2024-2025. The modeling results show that if the established trend of strengthening of the state role continues, then we can talk about the successful implementation of the WHO strategy to decrease and stop tuberculosis in the Kyrgyz Republic and the desired annual reduction in incidence to 10% by 2025. For Pakistan, the same parameter will be no more than 1.5%. The novelty of the presented work lies in the very formulation of the problem of monitoring the current outcomes of the implementation of WHO recommendations in different countries and the methodological development of appropriate situational tasks for learning and teaching medical students the methods of evidence-based medicine/health care.